DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

 

Nifty:- The last bull standing?

Nifty bears try their maximum towards 17500, aided by the expiry and bear market bounce elsewhere helped intra-day moves only to close in the red. Move over to the overseas clues does not matter to us for a change we go red even if they are green kind of. 17500 is a warning and wake up to the unfounded bulls here (view negates close above 17830, that is not a bad Risk Reward). With rupee now allowed to find its way (to save the pain and credibility of nominal rate hikes) the door bells ringing loud and clear. We are not alone in this world of no pain no gain narrative. Ignore at your own risk. Granted we are not in such a bearish back ground relative to the world. In a world of 7% Yields (two year Government Bonds hit 7%) markets doing nothing is a clear negative return. The smart money will stay sidelines or at best a sector rotation (that is in any case always present). With near confirmation of US landing into recession, UK admission they are already in recession, Germany, the harsh reality is "suggestion of taking bath two together" to save energy a stark reality. In US the down move is more than 200 Days old and that is clearly a trend. The longest is 900 Days 2007-2009, probably we are heading at least towards 300. For the day 17730 caps 17580 break confirms the journey to below 17500.  Stay sufficiently short (with appropriate hedge). In many frames either double top or a head and shoulder visible.  Weekly close below 17600 is confirmation of bear reappearance after an outside day bar now comes the close near the low of the previous week. Add to that the price action near the evening star. When Bank Nifty takes a step back (as it it is now) and Nifty shows signs of fatigue the move is clear and loud. Stay lucky. 

NIFTY BANK:-  Moment of Truth as Pragmatism knocks.  

The world moves by 75, Japan the land of rising Sun wants to stay put!. The result 24 year fall and 24 year history re-written with intervention. The pain is not the end rather a beginning. History is replete with failed intervention against the tide save the concerted intervention. We are not in that unified world story any more. Finally pragmatism knocks the RBI and they give up like the day trader the currency to find its path. We move quickly to 81 like the child allowed to leave to play. Where it lands is any one`s guess, hopefully they don`t close another door to play. This is a new dimension that would put the FII a step back to bring their bags. In a world where the USD and Rupee interest rates are near the same, an economy with twin deficits where incremental liquidity is negative, on par yields does not attract the capital. In a clouded and lonely world safety gets the big ticket. That is squarely with the dollar. Finally the bears eroded the long drawn trend line. The corrective moves are close to 0.382% (drawn from the bottom of 38200 toward the recent high). The potential is to move in between 50% and 0.618% area targeting 39800. The bigger correction would be towards high 38K. For now focus is towards mid 39K. Shorts remain below 41300 (sufficient with size and hedge) supply 40900-41200, demand 40440-40200-40000-39800.

@sribhashyam65 – Trading View – sreebhashyam  

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