DAILY TECHINICAL ANALYSIS
Nifty – Bulls deliberate 5.1 Music!
Nifty bulls open with a gap, spend most of the time above the gap and close in the green. Overseas cues too aided the watchful bulls. The much-expected factored FED hike of 50 bps unfolds. However, the dot pot now sees 5.1% Min rate in 2023 and no hikes. The 2024 Rate forecast to 4.1%. In otherwards average rate of 4.6% for next two years. This is practically no rate cut. In addition, real interest rates are expected to move higher. US markets and late Europe markets gave up all the gains, hit the deep red and recovered a little. Markets would take time to digest this piece of news which is contrary to the recent interpretation of data and the expected softer, pause or pivot choose your words. This is clearly not a verticle bulls news and potential deliberation to go through. Talking of deliberation, markets print deliberation candle pattern, this is slight deviation from Advance Block, the last candle is small and usually it is bullish reversal. Let`s see how we close. Short with stops 18730 is flagged. Also, small H n S Patter also emerging (not yet confirmed though)
Niftybank:- Location, Allocation and Rotation.
Nifty bank, once again opens gap and towards the proceedings of the day gives gains. This morning so far gap filled and rise above 44K. In shorter frames three-line bullish engulfing pattern needs a close above 44K. Remember, Rotation favours this sector. The moves have been exponential and thus allocation incremental may be tempered. Location of the price action and repeated short-term deceleration (like inflation rising but slower pace). Thus, a caution to incremental longs. Today again is the expiry day. The FED actions and words will take a day or two to digest and this one would be no different. 43800-44200 is the range to watch and a tiny sell is seen below 44200 towards this base. Larger moves have to wait and even if they happen it indicatives more of a corrective move.