2021-05-03 09:30:00


Serpent symbol of divine, desire, energy, cure and some cases as ornaments.  In all pronouncements, unless proved guilty, one is innocent. It is all about finding truth and nothing but truth. Truth is existence of God. Unless proved God is non-existent it is assumed otherwise. Very similar to Hypothesis Testing that we do. One Cannot say the Hypothesis is wrong, but one can only reject. No wonder, in the words of Great Mathematician Ramanujan, Numbers are "God".

Mahabharata starts with revenge story of Parikshit and Takshaka (King of Serpent) leading to the whole battle. Usage of Statistics in certain respects have become bites of Takshaka. While the subject of statistics itself is noble and vital to the progress of scientific thought, the way it is used to further ones own interest is questionable. "p" factor hacking is rampant and leads to bias driven towards benefits. "Backtesting while researching is like drinking and driving. Do no research under the influence of a backtest" - Marcos. However, in every walk of our life, we do exactly the reverse without remorse.

Statistics have been embedded into our life systems knowingly or unknowingly. Bounded by Optimisation needs, influenced by correlation co-in efficient, life has become one of curve fitting. Errors are auto-regretted and finetuned. End result, minor success and deep suffering. While the ordinary is struggling for two Square a meal, the affluent is Squaring their wealth in these tough times. The game of Snakes and Ladder is forgotten lessons for many. These methods have been used from framing the words with play, to influence. Anchoring one’s thoughts and in the process one’s life. Backgrounds of education, up-bringing have been morphed and consigned to consensus. Life has become binary whether one likes it or not. Snooping into the life’s of others have been marked as success when one takes the easy route of living along the majority.

Questioning past has become validation of what one does in the present. Endowed with no monetary or psychological loss all join the bandwagon despite vaguely realising that path may not be prudent in the long run. Who Cares!! Answers to Questions have become Questions themselves. Answers have become best fit than the best one to suit the needs. Percentiles ‘rules’ not the facts. People no longer want to observe, reflect and experiment. It all boils down to majority. While all looks leading to nowhere, for the un-orthodox ones it provides greatest opportunity.

Coming to markets, learning has become like Candle Sticks. Open with optimism, burning bodies and closing the day depending on one’s achievement. Ranging from dizzy to doji. Momentum is simply difference between late night thoughts and next day after-noon realisations dissolved in week ends of liquidity. While we are not saints, we are here to understand markets. In the midst of greatest investing systems that we have invented (just buy and hold) beating all other sophisticated models to guilty, one wonders where next! While this party will go on, remain invested. Markets are here longer, stay focussed on themes with rotational stories, 14000-15000 remains large ranges, they are sure to break higher not lower in the end game. All that happens in between are opportunities for wealth creation. Remember in life and investment, more than correlation, variance is important and is squared for success without deviation.