2022-05-18 07:55:00

Daily Technical View

Daily Technical View on NIFTY, BANK NIFTY, GOLD & SILVER

Nifty, bulls make a comeback. The force and thrust was sharp, quick and thick. Now does that sends bears into tears? The answer is strictly no. In fact bears must be laughing as they get more elevation to strike. FT carried an article on how the prices of "baby formula" shot up despite the fact the number of babies born has remained same. Such is the price rises that is being witnessed around us. Lentils to Lumber is the story. Domestically it is Wheat, Heat, Eat kind of situation with WPI printing double digits. However, for the bulls it can be read some other day. How, markets ignore news is another story for another day. What is critical is picking levels are not same at all the time. Now that bull held the 16000 there will be hopeful to buy those dips as and when materialize. Larger range remain 15500-16500. The ongoing price is approaching the higher band of the range. Selling from 16380-380 area in a staggered basis remains the best approach with stops for the whole around 16580. The rally is bear market rally or at least there is no vertical threat to the bears. For the day 16180-16330 should work. Direct break and close below 16180 suggest loss of bull`s steam. 

Nifty bank, bulls continue to power on the back drop of strong come back around 33000 and move into mid 34000 area. If we circle around the recent range of 2000 points we are closer to the top end of the range than to the bottom. Every move bears are able to trigger 1000 points more while bulls loose similar amount. Does that unfold an opportunity. Despite the vocal to very vocal approach to inflation management bulls have been lax in their approach. The Interest rates space has not given up, oil has not cooled. Kind of unwanted up moves, aka bear market traps. There is absolutely no let up on inflation and in fact sums the worries of various central banks, each one solving their own Sudoku as the world is no longer cut and past in this en-devour. So brace for volatility is the best approach and thus clearly brings to pick the range. With stops around 35500 (not an intra-day approach) for move to mid or low 32000 is the order. For the day though 33800-34500 to work.

XAUUSD:-  Continues to hold below 1830, still keeping option of pierce through the bottom than to the top. The corrective up move looks short and there is no safety yet. Till this asset class brings its glory of inflation hedge (now cash is the new asset class to own, how many would believe?).  Stay firmly on the ground and stay tuned to the 1780-1830 range. Stay off is the better option.  

XAGUSD:- Some shades of bull candles or they are simply the traps?.  Nothing much have changed other than a erosion around the long held support circling around 21.50. Nothing to get excited up for the bulls while bears have some work to do. Stay in 20.80-22.30 range for some time as the current up move looks tentative.