Daily Technical View

Daily Technical View on NIFTY, BANK NIFTY

Nifty:- Anchoring Inflation, Dithering Bulls
Nifty perfectly held and made inroads lower than the low suggested.  Inflation continuous do draw the head lines. Overseas green remained as Turnaround Tuesday. UK and Canada Join the inflation scare and Tomorrow the BOJ meeting is another risk event waiting. Another less telegraphed events is most of the Asian Currencies have hit lows ranging from Korea, Indonesian Rupiah and our own. There is brewing defense to hold the HKD peg. In the midst of all these calls for NIFTY 14500 year end target does not get any laurels as that is what market fears the truth.  The game however on a daily basis is completely different. Interesting information on the average trade life cycle of day traders is just 10 Sec. That is faster than even a thought. On the Graph we had large black candle followed by Tuesday green (in some places piercing pattern and in some places harami).  What is interesting is completely different take yesterday Candle of bear completes five candle follow three pattern (near). It is clearly slower low than a faster high. Close below 15300 would trigger the next direction. For the day 15280-15530 should work.

NIFTY BANK:- TO RISE OR NOT TO RISE?
The inflation is on the streets (Dalal). Every bank worth the name are raising rates some very minor, some large, some trying to show innovation. The Yes bank REPO linked is one such thing. Rate on FCNR deposits too rising. One large State Guaranteed Institution raised near 5 Year  money close to 10%. One can imagine.  This reflected in the index up-move failure as exogenous indicator. The failure around 33800 (resulting in shooting star, or evening star), yesterday close near the low all suggests this space room to go down.  Today being expiry day (not to forget scary expiry days) the directional bias remains to the down. A close below 32400 warrants further erosion while close above 33400 caution. Stay within this range.