DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Date:- 26th September 2022
Nifty:- Blame it on Jupiter, not J Powell
It has been a week of furious financial markets, FED hike, brutal bonds, shaky Yen, wobbly pound. NASA postpones Tuesday Artemis, Rumours of House arrest in China, Rupee to the south. Euphoric explanation from the powers be. Blame game from Financial Markets on J Powell doing blunder (watch the various high and mighty opinions). However, there is one celestial event that is unfolding today; Jupiter is coming close to the earth in 59 years, next it won’t come in another 107 years. Stars must be crazy is the one answer. The trend line is broken, bears get full control after fierce break of 17500. All set to land towards 200 DMA. The monthly close is very vital a close below 16800 calls for doom while a close above 17200 restores sanity. Wise would prepare for the worst; perineal hopefuls look for hope. These moves are not restricted to one sector or country or market. They all are moving in synchronisation. We are different is a story for another day. 17500-530 stops for short for move to low 16900 (might surprise, but would wait for MPC as possibility). Shorts still below 17500 close preferred. Supports 17330-17280-17200-17150 (Lot of heartbreak around this area). Potential double top and bearish contours suggest the way is south.
NIFTY BANK:- New Normal, It is a season of Fall!
It is that month of divinity and prayers of the bulls (bear if you are short USD). It is a season of Fall. Actions from Central banks irrespective ended in one result that is fall in their domestic currency in the currency. Will that be different when MPC meets this week?. What consequences it will have on the FIIs, the corporates who are staring not only the Interest rate risk, now the exchange one. Bulls must be waiting that the month September should be over quickly as the Month October typically is a month where the probability of bottom is found. J.Powell words "we are in new normal" needs to be read with Drucker`s comments of lost decade. It clearly is pointer to flat growth or below average trend growth of last many decades. That would be a Global trend growth of below 2.3%. It is a worry for the manufacturing countries and no wonder, China, South Korea are badly hit. What about the countries that have trade and current account deficit, sits in EM space, exposed to Currency and Interest rate risk. All these risk first appear as macro, then to the corporate finally land up in bank`s balance sheet. Not to scare as it is too early to draw conclusions. The fall sharper than we anticipated and the 61.8% of recent rise is met. The next level would be the corrective rise from 32000 to near 42000. 38.2% retracement comes around 38000 and 50% (5000 point fall around 37000). Rather steep but that has become the new normal in many spaces. Global financial markets are just one step away from panic selling day. Stay short, be nimble and hedge adequately. Size of the trade and risk is more important than anything else. Supply 39700-40000-40200. Support 39200-38800-38500.
@sribhashyam65 – Trading View – sreebhashyam
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