2022-09-27 06:05:00



Nifty:- Bear’s on auto mode?

One Target, One cause and multiple effects. Inflation monster remains the big threat (it is not going away in a hurry unlike what is flashed). Dollar remains the cause pushing everything below it. Bet it Gold, Bonds, Currencies, Credit or Equity. Many places now stare around Pre covid levels. In currencies the volatility is far greater than that is seen in crypto asset class. That is clearly unnerving the investor community. BOE faces challenges with currency crisis which has hit from its historic high of 5 today staring closer to 1.  Many bank`s now talk of 0.95. Such is the enormity. It is no wonder, the equity class has responded and hit the much awaited 200 DMA. The close is just about that. There are minor green as of this writing. However, a look at sectorial index reveal enough damage being done. Auto prints short term bearish mode, TATA the leaders on the down move. Consumption, Metals continue to show tiredness. IT and Pharma looks oversold and can be a short term contra move on the back drop of rupee fall. Bear`s clearly unmask and print near two months lows. The bi-weekly candle shows much more bearish trend. However, a bounce is not ruled out and that is expected to be sold of either around MPC or post expiry. Supports 16980-16930  supply 17080-17130-17180. Broad range of 16930-17230 should work.

NIFTY BANK:-  Turnaround Tuesday?

Bear`s pounce for the fourth day in a row. The importance of fourth day is very vital in gleaning to the incoming trends. A failure to move higher on fourth day (add to that fourth day being the Monday) call for deeper moves. However, 38300-500 is the area of the start of the recent cycle and hence a pause or minor rally is pending. FII continue to turn sellers, with another four days left that number might turn a paltry sum to a negative one. The world has already faced the Central Bank action whereas we are yet to witness that.  Friday remains vital. Thankfully that is post the month end expiry. For the bears break below 39300 brings fresh energy aided by the broader market moves (many sectors have broken the impulse up move and look either corrective move down or the start of down move). Direct break below 38300 warns far deeper correction. The moves so far mimicking the Oct/Nov pattern the only difference being the previous size of the candles are far smaller than relative to the size now. Ideally 38300-39300 should be a peaceful negotiation ahead of MPC with an incline to the buy side at the bottom.

@sribhashyam65 – Trading View – sreebhashyam  

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