2022-09-28 05:30:00



Nifty:- Bull’s forgotten war?

Nifty the broad market moves remained in the intra-day range on expected lines. The close is symbolic around the 200 DMA. Each country and each bull is looking for help from outside to solve their issues, however the reality is bulls have forgotten like the war in Ukraine far shadowed by other issues. The most volatile, sought after Crypto remained much less volatile while the text book very less volatile (there were memes how stocks and FD (read as bond)) bonds remained in deep red. As per BoFA the combined loss from equity, bonds (both sovereign and corporate) is whopping 58 Trillion dollars. Leave alone the market cap destruction. Markets tried green shots in Europe, bulls here moved on borrowed lines, but better sense prevailed to close near the low.  The stronger data, the less noise FED speakers about the fight on inflation, Yields moving to 4% 10 Y, concerns on UK all kept the bears in full control despite call for heavy oversold zones. Dollar retreated but remained as one more buy opportunity for the bulls. It is hardly a month back we were around these levels and hardly a week back bulls were in the mood to celebrate 18 K (recall our forever 18 K, albeit a minor break). Supply now 17080-17130-17180, support 16940-16880-16790-16718 (one move towards 16650 gap filling is pending). Bounce appear not before the 16550-800 zone. Shorts preferred (hedge with strike price of 17300) for deeper moves. This month close will drive the debate about the directional move. So far dice is now towards 13300 (looks very familiar story a few months back). For the day shorts stops 17130 for move to 16880.

NIFTY BANK:-  AAA to  CCC Just bear it!

If you are in the belief it is equity melt-down that is under wrap globally (though we deny it about its impact on us, our is holy liquidity kind off) it is the Credit. Yesterday one of Steel Service provider filed Chapter 11, Last week 90 Y old German Bakery declared their ovens cannot bake any more due to high energy cost. These are much less issues in the high decibel credit bubble. We are talking of countries like UK and IMF goes to say that they are watching very closely.  That can be a blessing in disguise as bears would focus for meat there than elsewhere. Irrespective of the credit rating be it AAA to CCC the risk is clearly on the crisis proportions.  In the Europe the inter-sovereign spreads are almost 2015-2012 crisis proportions. Imagine if we have to draw state level spreads (not that any exists). When credit hits bank`s balance sheet is the first causality.  It is farfetched at this stage to talk about this either globally or here. But concerns remain. Lost time can never be recovered but lost profits can. 25% fall to 75 from 100 is not same as 25% rise from 100. It took 17 days to climb from 38000 to 42000. It took just 7 days to reach. Staircase to Elevator? Close near low is worry. With MPC on (post market close last meet minutes and then Friday the decision, while the moves are known the depth is the pending one). 38800 caps now for lower (difficult to pick one). Hedge with 39300 strike is the best approach.

@sribhashyam65 – Trading View – sreebhashyam  

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