DAILY TECHINICAL ANALYSIS

 

Nifty:- Grab or Crab!

Nifty, bulls hold the fort almost till the last rush hour, putting everyone to sleep mode. Last 75 minutes comes the rush and rush was sharp and closed lower. The internals do not look great. Broder markets lack the momentum to push further up. We have drawn the bearish crab pattern; the approximate high is around 18400-500 area. Either we have already hit or there is some room to go. A stretched-redrawn pattern points to close to ATH, then the failure. The higher we go the higher the base. For now, the cost of hedging longs is cheaper, as the base moves to 18280. The break of this on close basis warns the inability of the bulls to push higher. Overseas, we witnessed see saw moves, post the comments from FED Bullard on the interest rates. The dollar does rally from the vital area, equity initially gave up and then recovers. It still remains mixed. The rally in some of the global indexes is running almost more than a month. There is a possibility of pause as we approach the crucial resistance zone. Markets are still consuming the consumer price data of last week and thus the range play there. For here 18280-480 is the range. A direct break below 18280 warns deeper wounds while a move past (need a close above 18430) opens for more gains. Supports 18310-18280-18230, Supply 18380-18410-18430-18470.  Sell rally 18380 stops 18428 for move to 18300-280 area. 

NIFTY BANK:-  Teaser or Tweezer! 

Nifty bank, hits the high matches the previous day, closes minor red. It is surely volatility or profit taking at higher levels. The broader Index is weakened by other sectors like FMCG, Auto than Banking. Expiry day also helps or aides the range moves. While the major index shows some chinks, today being the weekend, markets would be wary of taking extremes and would watch for clues from the global markets. The inflation data from Japan remains elevated, ditto in Europe. Coupled with comments from FED officials about neutral rate still high 5 plus, calmed the bulls nerves. One has to wait and see if this is teaser to Tweezer top (popular candles stick pattern). The probability indicator (not tested), results show 28% of break of 42300, 75% break of 42600. 15% probability of 42000 and 36% 42800.  Take with your own assessment of the move. For the day ideally prefer the range 42350-42650 no real fireworks within this range.

 

@sribhashyam65 – Trading View – sreebhashyam  

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