DAILY TECHINICAL ANALYSIS

Nifty - Bulls in “China Shop”

 

Nifty a direct move below 18280 punctures the bull`s hope. Elsewhere calls for Chinese equity being cheaper relative increasing the decibels. In a relative world within the EM space this can be negative to start with. However, the recent experience anything to go by, one has to wait and watch how this unfolds. In the short term graph we have the rounding top the break of 18280 confirms. Not long ago we were wishing for ATH, suddenly we find ourselves just 140 points away near the open for this month. On the daily the expected inverse head and shoulder invalidation comes around close of 17980 zone. A failed pattern of this is equally powerful to bring to notice. We will watch that later. On the internals it has now weak from neutral with one day of moves. Many spaces the week looks like Three Black Crows, in some evening star pattern. This is not individual stocks it is the index. This writ large on many spaces, save a few like banking which is now defence sector in this whole market up move. For the day some sanity and consolidation one can expect, but the trend slightly moved to sell rallies. Supports 18130-18080-18015. Supply 18210-18230-18280. Shorts 18230 stops 18280 intra-day for move back to 18160. Else bigger stops 18330 for a move towards 18000 (hedge appropriately). The failure of up move structure minds the moves in the beginning of the year. Bear`s sneak in but is not sufficient to trigger bigger and deeper moves yet. 

 

Niftybank:- Bulls “Crisil Cross”

Nifty bank, a lonely space where the losses are limited. However, the sharper rises in many places within this index and broader negative shades elsewhere in other sectors might force profit taking here too. The series of growth down grades, push back of the targeted 5 trillion date. First, decent selling numbers from FII all suggest the chances of profit taking down move than otherwise. Broader frames in 41800-42800 and one needs break of either to move the needle. However, short term the bulls find it difficult to trigger higher and stay higher. Sell moves to 42500 stops 42700 for move back to 42250-300.