Weekly Technical View
Weekly Technical View on NIFTY , BANK NIFTY, GOLD, USD/INR,CRYPTO, CRUDE
Complete scenario shift seem to have happened from the previous Option expiry and current week. First two days of the week had seen sharp slides factoring the FED rate decision. The stories on higher rate increase is making wild fire in the market. Globally the equity indices are cracking key supports. NIFTY has breached the crucial 16740 level. The remaining sessions are likely to be volatile and choppy. Now that the index has created another Gap between 16200 and 15900 on weekly chart which is a negative sign. Going forward 16200 -300 is likely to act as major resistances just like 16700 & 17200. The supports at 15400 and 15200 are at sight. The monthly close below 15300 would be taken as complete break-down for a move towards 15030 and then 14500. Next couple of weeks could throw better insights as to the final target for this move.
A few observations from the weekly charts are:
- Weekly charts suggest that the Index is at another crucial tipping point.
- 15500-400 range is a very crucial support zone
- A close below 15450 would take the index to 15k levels out of sheer panic.
- 15700-750 is taking support from the line connecting the first fall starting Feb 20 and Feb Similar is the position with second major break-out happened in May 21 when 15400 was crossed. The trend line connecting the ridges and troughs thereafter, meet around the same 15750
- Daily chart shows divergence
- There is a big gap between 16200 and 15900 created during this week
- There is a potential for filling this Gap
- As has been discussed in past reports the Monthly chart still shows a possible move towards 15040 and this is getting aided by the FED stories.
- The moves we have seen during the week is just a prelude. If we happen to see a monthly close below 15700 we can safely assume that we are heading towards the previous break-out levels like 14500 followed by 12300 in the following month(s)
- Equity could see another rout similar to the one seen in Cryptos
- Now the next question is whether reversal can be expected from here?
- 15400-15600 could be a consolidation zone. Wiser to wait and watch if this range holds for a couple of weeks.
- Now that the earlier support zone of 16200-16350 would be a supply zone.
- The inflation monster is difficult to control with additional Oil adding fire to the fuel. It’s a paradoxical situation when the economies are staring at recession oil prices running through the roof does not seem to make sense.
Bank Nifty is at a very crucial support zone of 33000-300 range. The Bank Nifty still remains vulnerable and an easy target for Bears. Only a weekly close above35300 can provide the required relief for attempt of 36k. Weekly charts suggest a possible attempt of 32k. Could stay in the range of 32200-34700. A close outside this range requires re-assessment.
The pair has made a strong base around 77.70. The range of be 77.70-78.40 expected to continue for this week. The managed depreciation likely to see the pair hit 78.30. Break of 78.30 could cause serious impact. which for now seems a bit difficult. Down side also seems limited. A weekly close below 77.70. could give the required breathing space for it to move to 77.10. Could be a case of slow grinding between 77.50 & 78.30.
Precious metal failed miserably in spite of the fact that it is considered as perfect inflation hedge. Unable to sustain the gains and got sold-off from 1875. Monthly charts still show a bearish scenario. Only a weekly close above 1875 could slightly change the outlook. The metal is seen in a wider range of 1775-1875 with choppy moves during the week. Break on either side would require quick re-assessment.
Crypto currencies sell-off of a typical example of pump and dump. Now we are heading towards Dec 20 lows. Will those levels hold or slide further will be known by middle of next week? Ideally the Dec 20 lows should provide support. had hit the Jan 21 lows. Next couple of weeks could see strong actions in the Crypto currencies. There is so much negativity surrounding these assets for now. Might take time to stabilize.
Crude has been moving in a narrow range of 115-123. Weekly charts suggest that 130 could be the top and expect the crude prices to cool-off. The crude has to give-up 100 levels for possible ease of situation. This week could prove to be crucial. If for any reason it breaches 130, then we may see another spike towards 140 on account of panic buying.